The future head of the government will be “attached to the social question, the environmental question and the production question”, he only sketched.
And it will face an ever-widening social divide, as one in two voters opted for extremes in the first round of presidential elections.
Priority to a woman
A woman would have her preference, according to relatives. But casting isn’t that simple. The minister of labor Elisabeth Borne, regularly quoted, remains little known to the French.
“Check the boxes. But does it send a political message?” Asks a member of the government. This scenario has “become so insistent” that it seems increasingly unlikely, observes another.
Approaching the day after the second round, Véronique Bédague, former head of cabinet to Prime Minister Manuel Valls who became CEO of the Nexity real estate group, did not respond, according to information from the Parisian confirmed to AFP.
The president of the Socialist Group in the National Assembly, Valérie Rabault, an expert in budget matters, is not a candidate, believing that the retirement at 65 puts too much the “cursor to the right”, according to BFM-TV.
The name of the president of the Pays de la Loire region, Christelle Morançais (Les Républicains), is gaining ground. “I don’t believe it at all,” said one minister, though.
Also mentioned are Catherine Vautrin, former minister of social cohesion under Jacques Chirac and president of the urban community of Grande Reims. And Nicolas Sarkozy’s former minister of ecology, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet (“NKM”). Without being unanimous.
“Only a star can shine”
The temptation of a “techno” head of government, aware of the state apparatus and without political ambitions, could be great.
After two terms, Emmanuel Macron will no longer be able to run in 2027. There is a great risk that an overly political Prime Minister may soon have other ambitions and overshadow him.
“As Bonaparte’s Chateaubriand said, there can only be one star shining in the sky,” said Gaspard Gantzer, former advisor to President François Hollande and a specialist in political communications.
In the “techno” galaxy, Emmanuel Macron could opt for the Minister of Agriculture Julien Denormandie, to whom he is linked, or the general secretary of the Elysée, Alexis Kohler, at the center of all the arbitrations of the first five years.
A political fuse
Faced with a social front that promises to be agitated, from the reform of pensions to the defense of purchasing power, “we need someone politician!”, Insists a minister for his part, in unison with the other majority members.
“Someone ready to jump in six months because social reforms will be tough,” he adds. In short, a fuse that would protect the president.
According to the director of political studies of the Kantar institute, Emmanuel Rivière, the prime minister will also have to bring “a bit of pacification” and compensate for the image of Emmanuel Macron, considered “too careless and sometimes contemptuous” in opinion public.
A right-wing head of government, such as Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire, would allow him to carry out his feat of robbing Republicans.
This would also have the advantage of disrupting the rise of Edouard Philippe who left Matignon crowned with more popularity than the Head of State in 2020.
But public opinion expectations are also very strong on purchasing power and ecology, which could justify a “rebalancing on the left”, believes Emmanuel Rivière.
The headliner will be difficult to find on this side, however, observes an executive adviser. Including to Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV) with which the “nuclear schism” is profound, he adds a majority executive close to the president.
Green presidential candidate Yannick Jadot does not have “the technical depth” for such a position, Gaspard Gantzer believes.
Pascal Canfin remains, chairman of the environment committee of the European Parliament. “In any case, it is he who theorized ecological design”, the president’s new creed, raises the picture for the majority.
What about white smoke?
“I think the President of the Republic has both his prime minister and his government in mind. He’s just playing with the calendar. He wants a short campaign,” analyzes one minister.
Unlike 2012 and 2017, the legislative elections will take place just seven weeks after the presidential election. Enough to break the momentum the new government is expected to instill at the start of Macron II’s five-year term. The president therefore has a vested interest in procrastinating.