Unexpected growth! – Blockware-Intelligence sees a bright future for Bitcoin (BTC) adoption. The speed of the latter would exceed that of the technologies used by a very large part of the world population.
Adoption of BTC: an exponential growth curve
L’adoption could reach the bitcoin market 10% by 2030according to report by Blockware Intelligence. In concrete terms, it would therefore be faster than the adoption of other disruptive technologies such as the automobile or electricity.
Can readers of this report take such an optimistic forecast seriously? From a methodological point of view, this prediction is partly based on the examination of the adoption curves of 9 disruptive technologies.
Blockware Intelligence has in particular to analyze the adoption of cars, electricity, smartphones, the Internet and social networks. Since 2009 he has also been involved in Bitcoin.
Through these observations, Blockware Intelligence has identified a common model the adoption of these technologies. The latter would follow a similar diagram of the exponential S curve “.
But’adoption technologies based on networks however, it has a specificity. She would be so much more rapid compared to market forecasts.
Without going into technical details, Blockware Intelligence then calculated this 10% figure using 2 indicators :
- the cumulative sum of the entity’s net growth.
- the 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the net growth of this cumulative sum.
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Internet as a lever for bitcoin adoption
The adoption of Bitcoin would reach saturation faster, compared to that of other disruptive technologies. The specificity of the motivation behind the use of Bitcoin would explain this higher adoption rate:
- consumers who adopt technologies such as cars, electricity or smartphones are looking for convenience and efficiency;
- a direct incentive of a financial nature in turn, it would cause Bitcoin to be adopted more rapidly.
In addition to this monetary incentive, the macro environment today and the internet would also work in favor of a increase fast by bitcoin users.
But the adoption of Bitcoin, like that of the Internet and social networks, also benefits from a particular phenomenon: thenetwork effect.
Put simply, the adoption of these technologies is acceleratingincrease from their baseusers. This phenomenon is easily observable in the case of social networks. The more users a social network has, the more attractive it is to potential new users.
This 10% figure is also found in a report of the European Central Bank (ECB) on cryptocurrencies. If Blockware Intelligence sees 10% global adoption of Bitcoin in 10 years. The results of the ECB survey demonstrate this 10% of households already own cryptocurrencies.
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