Ethereum bearish despite The Merge, volatility in sight

Is the storm over? – After stealthily dipping below the psychological threshold of $ 1,000, Ethereum is finding buyers. Ethereum is bouncing almost 35% from the low found below $ 900. As the fundamental progress on the Ethereum side with The merger that could be deployed on Sepolia in Julyt, the course is struggling. A few weeks ago it could legitimately be thought that the arrival of the Proof of Stake on Ethereum could give a boost to the price, but it is not. For the time being, Ethereum has broken through important levels and remains fragile as The Merge approaches. Summer is coming and it is often a quiet time for institutions. Can Ethereum get its colors back for the long-awaited update? Let’s take a look at the clues left by the graphs.

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Ethereum blocked under ATH Weekly 2018

Price of Ethereum against the dollar (1W)

Ethereum is currently below the 2018 ATH. A few months ago no one would have thought they would see Ethereum below $ 1,000, but the market decides so firmly. From the breakup of $ 2,150 on a weekly basis, the price of Ethereum is in bearish momentum. The wick left in the week of June 13 is encouraging, but there is still no confirmation that it would show a consolidation area on Ethereum’s price. You will have to wait at least one bullish wrap candle oa double bottom confirmed.

In the event of a price rebound, the next resistence it is found at $ 1,350 which corresponds to the old support from last summer. It will be absolutely necessary to get rid of it in order to see Ethereum perform again. At the moment, the ETH is still active bearish momentum, below the bearish trend line (Brown). Sellers got their hands on this crypto asset.

The momentum is bearish below the bearish trend line. This trend line acts like a tense spring just waiting to get back into balance. Once stopped in the weekly view, we should be able to find a few flow of buyers on the good created by Vitalik Buterin.

Ethereum daily: we need to hold the support at $ 880

Ethereum went under the $ 1,000we must now try to develop a low market on these levels:

Ethereum will likely find resistance around $ 1,370 on a rally.
Price of Ethereum against the dollar (1D)

Ethereum is inside downward trend on a daily basis. There are currently no signs of a trend reversal. In the event of a rebound, Ethereum should find resistence around $ 1,370 with the confluence:

  • from first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement)
  • of the resistence corresponding to ATH 2018
  • of the bearish trend line

There are many obstacles for buyers who will have to show some strength to overcome them resistors.

the momentum he’s trying a break in the downtrend. A trend that has been present since the end of March. Could give a littlepower for a rebound close to $ 1,370. If the momentum fails, there is a good chance of seeing Ethereum below again $ 1,000. It will then be necessary to defend the low recorded on 18 June in order not to slide towards the bracket for $ 500.

Possible short-term rebound for Ethereum?

A rebound of greater magnitude could occur if the price crosses the downtrend line:

Ethereum could rebound towards $ 1,450 or even $ 1,750.
Price of Ethereum against the dollar (1H)

The course had drawn a bearish right triangle and his breakup began a nearly fall 50%. The price is currently in contact with the trendline, if it falls it could lead to a rebound. If the course is still like bearishthe rebound must not exceed $ 1,450. In the event of a larger rebound, it is not impossible to see the price at the resistance level a $ 1,750.

The momentum may again block against the trend line. This serves as resistenceit will have to be crossed out so that buyers can override sellers.

Ethereum remains fragile against Bitcoin

Ethereum is fragile against Bitcoin, a return to support 2 would hurt investors.
Price of Ethereum versus Bitcoin (1W)

On a weekly scale, Ethereum has broke a support significant (S1). It is currently stabilizing just below the support it has become resistence. There are now two scenarios:

  • bullish : this corresponds to a recovery of the support. This would be very attractive to Ethereum buyers. Recovering this media could lead to the ETH / BTC pair resume a bullish momentum weekly.
  • bearish : the scenario of a bear market with an Ethereum that would continue to fall underperforming Bitcoin. Looking at the chart objectively, this is the scenario that remains most likely after the recent decline.

The momentum of the ETH / BTC pair is bearish and below the bearish trend line. The momentum has to come out of this bearish momentum to find the flow of the buyer.

Ethereum’s perpetual contract on Binance

Derivative markets let you know the behaviors market players. If they are optimistic, they will tend to do so long (highest bet). On the contrary, the actors will tend to do so shortor the market (betting) if they are pessimistic about the market. let’s take a look Binance contract who is the one who generates the most volume :

There are many open positions on this contract.
Binance Perpetual Contract on Ethereum (1D)

According to financing ratethe actors don’t not a one-way speculation. Indeed, when funding is very high, players largely buy with leverage. Conversely, when the funding is negative, players bet lower. Here, the funding rate is slightly positivebut it remains one correct level.

Open interest, which describes the number of open positions, remains very high despite the recent decline. The price has gone down 75% from the beginning of April, but the number of positions continues to grow (+ 60%). This metric indicates two possibilities:

  • Players continue to want to find the minimum with leverage. There is therefore a strong possibility of keeps falling (to liquidate one’s positions).
  • Most of them are short films. In this case, we may know a was similar to that experienced in 2021.

the long / short ratio shows a level of balance which is rarely found and usually leads to rebounds. There is currently as many open positions oriented to the purchase (long) as there are open positions oriented to the sale (short). This metric is based on amount of positionsnot the size of the positions.

Ethereum has experienced a steep decline in the past few weeks. Over the span of two weeks, the course ofEthereum lost 50%. The price is currently very volatile and this is likely to continue as the number of derivative market positions continues to rise. Ethereum is struggling against Bitcoin, we should resume the support mentioned in the article to think that the fall is behind us. At the moment, the price of Ethereum is bearish and it will take some time to change that. Buyers will need to show up to prevent Ethereum’s price from permanently stabilizing below the psychological threshold of $ 1,000.

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