Would Bitcoin be bullish, carried away by the US market? Macro weekly update

A summer favorable to risky assets? – Risky assets are recovering and it may not be over. the Bitcoin almost bounced 40% from 20 June e Ethereumoffers an increase of 80% ahead of The Merge. On Wednesday, the Fed will announce the new interest rate decisions. Additionally, players are awaiting the release of results from American tech giants such as Alphabet (Google), Apple, Meta (Facebook), Amazon and Microsoft. As you may have guessed, it is an important week that should bring volatility. All of these events are likely to already be price from the market, it will still be necessary to be vigilant. For this, nothing better than to take a step back from the situation, let’s take a look at the rankings.

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Bitcoin is struggling to continue its rise …

Bitcoin has bounced and even broke his own ordered increasing. After just a few days out of range, Bitcoin shows itself signs of weakness :

Bitcoin price against the dollar (1D)

At the end of May, Bitcoin broke out of the high range and re-entered it very quickly. The reintegration of the range had brought the price towards support and the the support had given way.

When a range is broken to the upside, sellers have positions in the red because they are selling at the resistance level. Once crossed, the buyers’ goal is to keep the sellers bent. Gold, the return of a range shows that sellers have managed to bend buyers in a favorable environment. It is for this reason that in technical analysis, we are wary of reinstatement as we currently have.

If the reintegration is confirmed, it is likely that you will find the Bitcoin at the level of support which is a $ 19,200. It is not excluded to relive the situation at the end of May and to make a new low. The momentum remains solid at the moment and could support the course. This could allow Bitcoin to recover at the last minute.

Risk off: Gold bounces off the weekly support level and the dollar blocks resistance

Gold seeks to recover at $ 1,690

We were talking about it last weekgold found brackets at $ 1,690 :

Gold is moving up to the weekly support level.
Price of gold against the dollar (1W)

Since April 2020, gold appears to have stabilized in a ordered including the upper limit a $ 1,970 and the lower limit a $ 1,690. The support is once again doing its job and the uptrend line is near. The price will have to maintain support and trendline to avoid slipping below $ 1,690.

For the moment, the the main trend is bullish on this good. A break of the support would take a toll on the momentum of gold over the medium term. Buyers must defend these levels. The momentum is now bearish.

The dollar is stuck

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to do so raise rates. However, the dollar index is a measure of the dollar’s value against a basket of currencies including the euro. It would appear that the ECB’s announcement contributed to slow down the dollar:

The dollar index is stuck at the weekly resistance level.
Dollar Index Chart (1W)

It is too early to think that the ascent is over for this safe haven. For the moment, the course is over refuse on resistance, but there is still no change in the dynamics. It should block at this level and join the support in the weeks or months to come. It should be borne in mind that risky assets tend to rise when the dollar is weak.

The momentum may begin to weaken, but, again, nothing is confirmed at this time. The RSI is rarely overbought as it is right now. If the momentum continues to decline, it will show that the upside is running out and so on sellers could take over.

Bullish continuation for the US market?

The figures of the various companies mentioned in the introduction should not spoil the party, because the US market rebounds and it could continue to rise.

The S&P 500 rises again and breaks out of the overhead resistance at $ 3,900

Buyers manage to make sellers give up. Resistance to $ 3,900 finally break:

The S&P 500 breaks out of the overhead resistance at $ 3,900.
Price of the S&P 500 against the dollar (1D)

After stumbling twice against the resistance at $ 3,900, buyers manage to break through the resistance. At the same time, the bearish trend line give up. Daily, the dynamic is now bullish with dips and rising peaks.

Now, buyers must do their best to avoid falling back below the resistance it has become support. The momentum is solid and could score a divergence closing above 65. If buyers push, the next resistence it is found at $ 4,165.

Coinbase continues to push towards $ 84

Coinbase shares appear to have found buyers and the ascent does not seem to be over :

Coinbase could continue to rise towards $ 84.
Coinbase price against the dollar (1D)

Buyers absolutely need to keep pushing to change momentum on a daily and weekly basis. For this, the price must close above $ 84. For the moment, the course is over reject the downtrendlinebut the area identified with $ 63 (green) seems favorable to a rebound to collect $ 84 also $ 104 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement). The RSI momentum broke the bearish trend line and it could empower buyers.

In short, it looks like Coinbase bullish in the short termbut the underlying trend remains bearish. It is absolutely necessary to change the dynamics by closing above $ 84.

The NASDAQ confirms the bullish divergence

The Nasdaq is in the same situation as the S&P 500:

The NASDAQ breaks through the overhead resistance at $ 12,200.
NASDAQ price against the dollar (1D)

The NASDAQ is showing encouraging signs. Indeed, after two unsuccessful attempts, buyers manage to sell the resistance at $ 12,200. This area must now become a support for the class. If so, next resistence is approx $ 13,000. The course is back bullish thanks to the fence above $ 12,170.

Furthermore, the momentum confirms a bullish divergence managing to get past 54 of RSI. This shows that the the downward trend is fading and that buyers can take advantage of it.

The market is showing encouraging signs for risky assets. The dollar is starting to lose strength although it remains in an uptrend for the time being. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ managed to break through the resistance and may continue to rise. Beware, the week is busy and disappointing results could bring sellers back. the Bitcoin it shows some excitement when it falls in the range of $ 21,800 to $ 19,200. Buyers need to react quickly. Whatever happens, Bitcoin is likely to follow the movements of the US market, because it is a risky asset. It is to be hoped that the results of Gafam will not surprise the players and that the rebound started on the markets will continue.

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