The king of cryptocurrencies continues his recovery but until when? – Many cryptocurrency investors are currently happy with the technical rebound of Bitcoin (BTC), despite bad macroeconomic news such as the contraction of the US GDP for the second consecutive quarter and the core PCE (statistic much followed by the EDF to measure inflation) which remains at high levels.
But the fact that major risks are being widely discounted recently explains the resilience of all risky asset classes. So much so that the theory of market efficiency is becoming ridiculous. Also wondering if it wasn’t yet another ploy to trap the last laggards who were full sellers.
After repelling the threat below the $ 20,000 support, the cryptocurrency king appears to have decided to test his next resistances. The latest technical analyzes testify to this momentum short term. With the prospect that Bitcoin will conquer one of the key thresholds of its latest bull run.
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Bitcoin in monthly units: a positive July after multiple hesitations around the $ 20,000 support
Except in an incredible situation and after the spring defeat, Bitcoin looks set to close on a positive note in July. Not without difficulty, in the sense that it took some time to bounce off the $ 20,000 support. Do we need to be reassured in the short term?
Yes, because the king of cryptocurrencies was led by a lull in bond rates and a timid consolidation of the dollar against the major currencies (euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar). No because June’s huge bearish candle is far from over. Hence the belief that we would limit ourselves to a technical rebound and no more.
However, cryptocurrency investors are trying to cling to the idea that BTC prices are above the Kumo (Ichimoku cloud) in monthly units, and the same for the Chikou Span. But on the other hand, the evolutions of the Tenkan and the Kijun would encourage me to be on my guard. Their rapprochement, which is the result of the latest bearish wave, would potentially constitute an additional source of tension in its race to the downside.
Therefore, the possibility of a Tenkan – Kijun crossover in monthly units would hardly be reassuring in a medium-long term perspective, even if it would not represent a reliable technical signal given its latency.
Projecting onto the weekly chart, Bitcoin’s bearish race since the last ATH in 2021 temporarily calms down. Prices, on the other hand, fail to erase the losses of the weekly candle of June 13th. So that it is not an obstacle to the pursuit of the technical rebound, It would be necessary to overcome two resistances close to each other: that of the 26 thousand dollars and the Tenkan.
In the affirmative, BTC prices would attack a bone, the $ 30,000 resistance. Beyond its main role in the latest bull run, it could end near the descending line in favor of an upward speed before mid-August. Even so, prices and the Chikou Span would still remain below the Kumo.
This could be frustrating for cryptocurrency investors not to see the end of the tunnel. But patience will remain in order until prices for the cryptocurrency king bounce back to the neckline of around $ 41,000. History to be considered a definitive neutralization of the race to the bottom (not to be confused with a real turnaround).
Bitcoin in daily units: will prices exceed Kumo?
The suspense in units per day would be if Bitcoin prices manage to outrun Kumo. Especially since a triple bottom has already been validated before, then took root thanks to a return to the support of $ 22,000. This would be an encouraging point that would allow for an extension of the technical rebound.
However, the upper limit of the cloud, the SSB (Senkou Span B) which is very flat for several consecutive days in a future projection, could prove to be a tough resistance, not far from that of $ 26,000. Otherwise, BTC prices would remain within the Kumo with fears of a return towards $ 22,000.
But if we keep the same dynamic as this week, the final battle towards $ 30,000 awaits us. This would coincide simultaneously with an increase in the Chikou Span towards the upper or lower limit of the cloud. And if we keep the end of the final fight unless otherwise indicated, it is that there should be no illusions about the outcome of the technical rebound compared to the current financial market environment.
Now that Bitcoin’s bearish race has paused since its last ATH in November 2021 is in the works, let’s hope $ 26,000 isn’t the final touch of the technical rebound. If so, I fear a new bearish wave will start again. But unlike the previous one, it would be a capitulation that would leave many players in the cryptocurrency sector behind. So much so that we have evidence against influencers such as Tesla’s massive bitcoin sale during its latest release of the quarterly results.
But on the other hand, the latest FOMC meeting would raise hopes for a less aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed in the future. Not to mention that the latest macroeconomic data would seem to confirm this presumed scenario with the consequent easing of inflationary pressures. In this sense, it could help Bitcoin rise to $ 30,000, the eventual end point of the extension of the technical rebound.
It would not be enough to cross the descending line to conclude a favorable trend reversal. Especially since there would be a lot of work to tame the future Kumo in weekly units. A move beyond the broad resistance zone of $ 41,000-46,000 would ultimately be the precondition for initially balancing the balance of power between buyers and sellers.
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