Bitcoin: More bullish blockware than ever for adoption

We are early – Blockware Solutions specializes in blockchain infrastructure and cryptocurrency mining. In a recent report, the research department first examined theoretical and historical models of mass adoption. He then attempted to position Bitcoin (BTC) on this curve and provides a “conceptual framework” for making predictions on Bitcoin’s growth metrics. According to his estimates, Blockware expects global adoption of Bitcoin by 10% around 2030.

Before Bitcoin, the theory and history of adoption curves

Original theoretical model of the innovation adoption curve

The first point to note is the notion of cycles. Technologies and innovations follow one another, but the sociological dynamics repeat themselves, human nature remains the same. This adoption curve theorized in 1962 is divided into different categories of adopters, from pioneers to laggards. Every successful innovation goes through the same stages of contempt and rejection before instilling fear in the innovation losers and ultimately being adopted by the market.

Bitcoin has inalienable but above all unalterable qualities that offer it resilience and a gigantic market: the security of online exchanges. Whether they are monetary or not, even if the main advantage of Bitcoin is to transfer value in an incensurable way, without intermediaries.

Blockware has previously studied 9 disruptive technologies, ranging from electricity to mobile tablets. An adoption ratio has been established for each of these technologies in order to be able to compare relatively comparable data.

Historical adoption curves of 9 innovative technologies.  Source
Historical adoption curves of 9 innovative technologies. S.source

All in all, there is a familiar pattern for each adoption curve. A genesis with slow growth, first a parabolic phase then a possible plateau that looks more like a false plan of the Tour de France.

Each parabolic phase listed in the graph occurred after an adoption rate of 10%.

The main observation here reveals that internet-related technologies lead to the most aggressive adoption stages. Bitcoin being a reliable and decentralized monetary network, it presents itself as a legitimate successor to all these technologies that are now part of the daily life of most of the planet.

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Bitcoin has a game

And this will likely take place in three acts: slow adoption, parabolic phase, then slow and steady progression of adoption. Quite often it is “maybe. But Blockware has little doubt about this and makes a key point in its report.

Looking at the growth of new entities (one entity = one address), the Bitcoin network has hosted over 250 million entities. Of course, cycles and volatility scared many of these entities. They must therefore be excluded from the calculation.

Cumulative net growth of entities on the Bitcoin network.
Cumulative net growth of entities on the Bitcoin network.

The Net Entity Growth metric takes into account the wallets dropped to zero. The cumulative sum of net entity growth is well below the total number of entities. According to this calculation, currently there would be 30 million unique users on the cryptorete.

So far from any mass adoption with nearly 0.4% of the population currently owning satoshi.

By pondering the previous innovations listed above and taking into account the historical growth of Bitcoin, Blockware has developed a forecast chart of the adoption rate in the future. Fasten your seat belts.

Prediction of Bitcoin adoption among the global population.
Prediction of Bitcoin adoption among the global population.

The model speaks for itself and will immediately delight bitcoiners and other satochists, there is no need to add more. If the future were like this, it would herald good years for the pioneers.

After a first decade of existence, adolescence promises to be turbulent for Bitcoin. Between regulations and a lack of global pedagogy on the subject, mass adoption will not be a long and calm river. Blockware’s predictions are optimistic, but let’s make it clear that there is little chance of them coming true. Adoption will be slower. Or faster. But very unlikely “as expected”. The report does not fail to quote statistician George Box in the preamble to his conclusion: “All models are wrong, but some are useful. ”

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