Crypto Point of the Weekend: How Far Could the Market Bounce?

If you haven’t had a chance to take advantage of the recent bullish move in cryptocurrencies, it’s best not to top up your favorite assets right now. Indeed, we must not forget that we have been in a bear market since November 2021. As this dynamic has accelerated in recent months, it is quite normal to see a bullish rebound. However, this impulse may make you believe one thing: you have missed the low point. To tell the truth we don’t know, but that shouldn’t push you to buy without first identifying the situation of the assets relative to their key levels.

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Does total market capitalization bounce off the top of the range?

Total market capitalization price of the cryptocurrency (1D)

Since last week, the market has had the opportunity to bounce off the upper end of the range that we had identified for several weeks. As I told you, the goal was to avoid reintegration, which is happening right now. However, remember that the daily swing pattern is bearish. So, in theory, we are still in an upward correction before breaking the low point down.

In order for the market to prolong this upward momentum, the objective is the following: to exit the current red zone and return to the low of the summer of 2021. It is a not negligible confluence of levels. With that done, the market will likely be able to return to $ 1.2 trillion. This level was a local support which allowed the market, from mid-May to early June, to break its downward momentum. In the event of a bearish reversal, the current level to watch is the low of $ 923 billion. In the event of a loss, it will mean a reversal of the daily trend which is bullish.

A bullish momentum being preserved on altcoins?

Market cap price of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum on a daily scale
Market cap price of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum (1D)

Compared to last week, I have perfected my bearish swing pattern which was misidentified and far too broad. The uptrend is still preserved, the altcoins continue (for the moment) their pullback. Hence, last week’s bullish trend was the right one for altcoins. However, we are coming to a confluence of remarkable technical levels. In addition to an old daily support that had never been retested except in the last few days, we have a daily supply zone that is still valid. The H4 refueling zone is no longer valid but I still materialized it for you so that you can understand where it was.

The current challenge is as follows: break the daily offer zone to have a new bullish target on the altcoins (offer zone which is in confluence with resistance). If the price is rejected at the current level, it will demonstrate the strength of the sellers who have not said the last word. In order for the internal structure to turn bearish again, I invite you to look at the low of $ 363 billion. In case of a close or stop below this minimum, we will have to think about bearish price targets.

Is Bitcoin’s dominance still in an unfavorable configuration?

Bitcoin dominance course on a daily scale
Bitcoin Domain Course (1D)

For now, the dynamic remains the same as in the past two weeks. Bitcoin continues to lose strength relative to the rest of the market. We can see this currently with the formation of a new low. This shows that the daily trend is bearish. Currently on an important technical level, if the bitcoin dominance fails to reverse the trend with a recovery from (for the moment) 42.63%, we can maintain a bearish bias.

The price seems to follow the chart annotation I made last week. I am not trying to describe the future movement identically. However, it helps to understand the structure that might occur. Yes, Bitcoin will regain control in this bear market sooner or later. So the levels identified are always the same, I invite you to keep your eyes on 41.32%. This level is an important low point.

Ethereum does not give up and continues to rise up against Bitcoin

Price of Ethereum versus Bitcoin on a daily basis
Price of Ethereum vs Bitcoin (1D)

I had the opportunity to update this chart by replacing the old (still valid) red zone with a daily replenishment zone. This allows for a wider area of ​​intervention. For the moment Ethereum manages to extend its uptrend continuing to record higher peaks than the previous ones. So, until we break the previous low which is (for now) at 0.0651 bitcoin, the internal structure is bullish.

I would like to warn you of greater vigilance to have on current levels. The upper part of the bearish range should theoretically be preserved. So, sooner or later, Ethereum should fall against Bitcoin again. This inversion would be ideal in the orange supply zone. However, nothing is certain as it is entirely possible to have a bullish breakout of the bearish swing pattern. It’s best to wait for certain technical setups and rely on what we have at the moment. The goal is not to predict the future, but to adapt as quickly as possible to changes in prices.

An ALTPERP index that needs to be closely monitored.

Altcoin Index Perpetual Futures daily price
Altcoin Index Perpetual Futures daily price

From the analysis of the index, dated July 10, the altcoins managed to gain strength by extricating themselves from the resistance that had to be watched. By operating a bullish breakout of the resistance, a reversal of the internal structure has occurred. This helped set bullish targets for this index. Although still in an uptrend, the index is currently in a weekly offer zone where a daily offer zone is nested. Therefore, caution should be exercised at this time.

Indeed, sellers could benefit from a return of the altcoins to key technical levels to re-emerge. This would prevent buyers from breaking the bearish swing pattern. So what would be the sign of an index reversal? Given the current price structure, a bearish breakout of the demand zone with a loss of $ 1708 will confirm a trend reversal.

Here we are at the end of this weekend’s crypto point. If there is one thing I want to draw your attention to, it is the confluence of technical levels that the market as a whole has to face. Whether it’s altcoin or Ethereum versus Bitcoin, the market is in a daily uptrend. However, it is above a bearish swing pattern. So, be careful and don’t hesitate to take partial profits. We recall that we are in a bear market with an unfavorable macroeconomic context. If the market continues to push higher, there will always be new opportunities.

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