Ethereum (ETH) – The $ 1700 so crucial for the technical rebound!

The technical rebound of the cryptocurrency prince at the crossroads! – À l’entame du mois d’août qui s’annonce souvent atone sur les marchés financiers, the ensemble des classes d’actifs reprennent quelque peu leur souffle après un mois de juillet ayant entretenu le mince espoir que le pire puisse être derrière we. The arguments are not lacking: the possibility of moderation of monetary tightening by the FED, easing of the rise in the dollar and consolidation of bond rates.

Logically enough, this has led to a return to the risk appetite that cryptocurrencies so desperately needed. Among these, Ethereum (ETH), well helped by the announcement of its upcoming merger, has taken full advantage of it. Yet despite the technical rebound from the $ 1000 support, the latest technical analysis against the cryptocurrency prince still confirms a stalemate in his race to the bottom since his last ATH in November 2021.

One wonders if price capping below the $ 1700 resistance observed for a few days would raise concerns about a relapse. Especially since we are currently tripping close to a crucial level for the extension of the technical rebound.

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Ethereum in monthly units – A good month of July but far from reassuring in the long term

After biting the dust all spring, Ethereum closes July with a flourish, causing the resistance of $ 1400 to explode. At the same time, the threat below the $ 1000 support is easing momentarily. But the fact remains that the bullish candle does not cancel the losses of the previous June. To read between the lines, the stigmata of the latest bearish wave after failing below the $ 3,400 resistance would still be omnipresent. Symptomatic of a race to the bottom that has suddenly accelerated, many cryptocurrency investors have preferred to leave the ship.

While the position of ETH and Chikou Span prices above the Kumo (Ichimoku cloud) in monthly units could eventually console them, it is clear that there will be work to be done to hopefully revise last year’s all-time highs. And the large gap between Tenkan-Kijun and prices, often synonymous with excess in one direction or another, may take some time to close due to the crisis of confidence linked to the latest stresses in the cryptocurrency sector.

In the event that Prince of Cryptos prices remain in a price zone where there is no clear upward trend until the end of the first half of 2023, I fear they are trapped under the cloud. . Hence the fear of delaying the end of the current race to the bottom.

Ethereum in weekly units – Towards a fifth week of consecutive increases?

If it closes above $ 1680, Ethereum will continue its good streak of five consecutive weeks up. As we speak, however, this doesn’t take the road. And for good reason, prices open below the $ 1700 resistance. Because graphically it represents one of the psychological thresholds of the latest bull run.

Ethereum Price Analysis in Weekly Units - 02 August 2022

On the other hand, ETH prices are trading above the Tenkan. This technical signal would allow the option to cross $ 1700 to be maintained. If this market scenario were to materialize, the technical rebound would extend to the resistance of $ 2300 at best., with a breakout to the upside of the Kijun. Even better, the descending line of the bearish race could be tested.

And in the momentum of this potential upward move, the price and positioning of Chikou Span relative to Kumo would begin to change. The second, in fact, would get back in contact with Senkou Span B (SSB). However, I would have had difficulty in predicting the crossing beyond the cloud given the considerable thickness of the latter.

In this pattern shown on the weekly chart, Ethereum’s bearish race would still be valid despite the likelihood of a descending line breach. Because to neutralize the sellers, we should start with a high speed return towards $ 3400. And given the current situation, we are far from it.

Ethereum in units per day – First difficulties below $ 1700

The difficulties in crossing the resistance of $ 1700 date back to last Thursday, more precisely the day after the FED meeting. This explains the temporary cessation of the respective ascensions of Tenkan and Kijun in daily units. Fortunately, Ethereum’s prices are higher than Kumo despite a Chikou Span that is plausibly heading into the cloud.

Ethereum Price Analysis in Daily Units - 02 August 2022

Otherwise, triple bottom validation would remain a significant asset in aiming to get rid of the $ 1700 resistance. Especially since it would be desirable for it to build up so that the break in the race to the bottom from its ATH in November 2021 lasts for a few more weeks. Enough to offer a three-digit technical rebound from the $ 1000 support and a simultaneous move of the cryptocurrency prince and the Chikou Span above the Kumo, at least in the short term.

In the interest of seeing a prolongation of the technical rebound, you will have understood that Ethereum must not drag too far below $ 1700 otherwise the tensions of last spring will come back to the surface. This is why the next few days would prove decisive. And if for once August replicates the July recovery to a lesser extent, late sellers would be forced to buy back at a high price. If so, we could write off half of the losses from the last bearish wave.

However, caution will always be required on both a fundamental and a graphical level. On the one hand, the current uncertainties on the financial markets are struggling to dissipate. And on the other hand, it would be necessary to get close to $ 3,400, or even $ 4,000 to stifle the bear market. Not to mention that the worrying trajectory of the future Kumo on the weekly chart forces us to refrain from any scenario that foresees a favorable trend reversal throughout 2022, or even in the first months of 2023. With the fear that the last phase of the bear run would arrive in September, a month known for risky asset classes.

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