Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain analysis: who are the current bitcoin buyers and sellers?

The market is currently saturated with mixed signals. Let the movement stabilize and observe the buying and selling dynamics of various geographic market areas, as well as various cohorts of holders, to answer the following question: “Who are the current buyers and sellers?” “

Bitcoin is sending mixed signals

Bitcoin price (BTC). maintains its short-term bullish momentum. Testing the upper limit of the range ($ 19,000 – $ 22,000) as support, the price gives hope for a recovery although the underlying trend remains bearish.

given thatchain activity in regimeof the recent spending by long-term investorsof the increased speculative risk and of short-term momentum reversal, the market today is saturated with contradictory signals.

Figure 1: BTC Daily Price

So, to let the current movement stabilize, this week’s analysis will focus on dynamics of buying and selling of the different geographic market areasthen on the triptych Individuals – Traders – Whales, to answer the following question:

Who are the current buyers and sellers?

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Geographic market areas

Introduced by Glassnode in March 2022, a set of metrics that track cumulative price movement during trading hours in the United States, Europe and Asia provides an overview of which geographic areas are leading or lagging behind in terms of market pressure.

They allow you to observe the reactions of the various actors structural changes in the market and the price action of BTC.

Triptych composed of United States (in orange)of the’European Union (in blue) and of Asia (in green)these heterogeneously fluctuating metrics currently indicate this the general behavior is buying, even if the Asian market shows a slight downward bias.

BTC GeoZone 010822

Figure 2: Geographic market areas

Starting from the observation of the buying / selling behavior of the US markets, it seems thatthey accumulated strongly during the increase in early 2021 before slowing down along with the BTC price.

They give way from May to July 2021 with record sales, only to quickly accumulate during the recovery in September, before limiting their purchases (blue arrow) from November 2021 to July 2022.

note that North American markets dominate the sell-off following the price drop caused by the collapse of the Earth / MOON ecosystemfrom May to June, before adopting a mixed behavior, between hot and cold, during the fall, bringing the price of BTC to current levels.

Currently, the US is leading the way by exerting moderate buying pressure on the market.

BTC US Zone 010822

Figure 3: Change in the position of US markets

Globally, the European Union appears to be following the behavior of their overseas counterpartswhile taking a less intense approach.

After the US accumulation in early 2021, Europe increases its exposure to the highs of March and April, but still sells moderately in the period from May to July 2021.

Inducing little buying pressure on the rally taking BTC to the $ 69k ATH, European markets adopt moderate, sometimes bullish, sometimes bearish behavior, with relatively low proportions.

Selling gradually in May 2022, Europe eased its downward pressure during the month of June (yellow arrow), before cautiously following the long US bias since last week.

BTC UE Zone 010822

Figure 4: Change in position of European markets

Asian markets have their own dynamicssometimes in contrast with western markets.

Indeed, Asia participates only late in the increase in early 2021 and induces limited selling pressure during the May to July 2021 decline.

Leading the purchase to the edge of the November ATH, Asia turns and sells at all-time highs at the end of 2021, before repeating this behavior in May 2022, further capitulating in July.

Current positions in Asian markets are still short, although the magnitude of their downward pressure has eased.

With a negative overall performance, theAsia appears to be the geographic area that has suffered the most over the past two years.

BTC Asia Zone 010822

Figure 5: Change in position of Asian markets

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Small hands pile up, big hands deal

We now qualify this study by analyzing three cohorts of participants based on their holdings in BTC.

By leveraging Glassnode’s heuristics, we can get insight into how many entities have between 0.001 BTC and 1 BTC on the chain.

This cohort, called “Individuals” or sometimes “shrimp” represents the entities with small amounts of BTC and not having a professional activity sale / purchase / custody of bitcoins.

Retail BTC 010822

Figure 6: Offer held by private individuals

Looking at the graph above, it is clear that the small wallet cohort shows strong cumulative behavior over the past few years. Note that current price levels are particularly attractive to these entities.

The second cohort, presented below, is that “Merchants”. Composed ofentities holding between 1 and 1000 BTCthis group brings together some great individual fortunes but above all companies, having the custody of large sums of bitcoin, for themselves or for their customers.

Traders BTC 010822

Picture 7 : Offer held by Merchants

Despite a more sensitive behavior to market movements, the holdings of this cohort are in a long-term uptrend, which has also been accelerating since May.

Finally, the cohort with more than 1000 BTCbringing together the entities known as “whales” or “whales” has the opposite behavior to the previous two.

After taking profits at the highs of March and April 2021, the supply held by this cohort increased slightly before showing distributor behavior from November 2021.

BTC Whales 010822

Image 8 : Offer held by Les Baleines

This momentum then intensified until it reached a distribution peak in June and July 2022. So, it looks like this cohort has largely participated in the pressure to sell and in the process of redistribution of the offer in the last two years.

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Summary of this onchain analysis

In short, the data this week indicate it there are significant differences in behavior between the various geographic market areas.

American markets, aggressive bettors, are often the first to buy an upside and slow down when the movement wears off. This does not prevent them from making significant losses as during the capitulation from May to July 2021.

The European Union plays the role of moderate follower, following the trends of the United States but to a controlled extent.

On the other hand, Asian markets often behave contrary to Western markets.with a negative overall performance.

Furthermore, studying the cohorts of holders based on their holdings allows us to determine this individuals and traders engage in important hoarding behaviorswhile the whales tend to distribute, actively participating in the distribution of capital.

Sources – Figures 2 to 8: Glassnode

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