PEL, savings account, home loan … The winners and losers of the ECB rate hike

In the face of skyrocketing prices, the European Central Bank will withdraw heavy artillery on Thursday with a substantial hike in its rates. A decision that will have both positive and negative consequences for your wallet. Explanations.

The European Central Bank has decided to strike hard. As prices jump in 9.1% in August in the space of a year in the euro zone, unknown since the creation of the single currency, on Thursday it is to announce a sharp increase, of three quarters of a point, in its reference rates. Currently ranging from 0% to 0.75%, key rates from now on will be between 0.75% and 1.50%. A decision that comes two months after an initial raise of half a point in more than ten years. The generous monetary policy that had enabled the economy to be stimulated is therefore well exhausted to contain inflation well above the inflation rate 2% term by the ECB. This second rate hike in the short term will have many consequences, both positive and negative, for the family budget.

An advantage for your savings

On the other hand, this decision by the ECB will improve the performance of several savings products. Starting with the euro life insurance funds which are made up of loans issued by the states. While euro funds today struggle to deliver a 2% yield like the Livret A, this increase in return will take a long time to materialize. Indeed, the stock of insurers’ sovereign bonds is gradually being renewed. The euro funds are oil tankers and therefore there is a strong inertiaexplains economist Philippe Crevel.

Other rate products that will benefit from the ECB rate hike: savings books. Starting with Livret A and its cousin the Livret de Développement Durable et Solidaire (LDDS). They should see their remuneration increase once again from February 1, when it will be reviewed by the Banque de France. The Livret A rate is in fact calculated every 6 months from the arithmetic average of inflation without tobacco in the previous six-month period, and the STRa benchmark rate for daily lending between financial institutions.

Our dossier on the hidden side of Livret A

However, as the ECB raises its rates, banks will pass this overhaul to theirs, automatically causing the STR to jump. Thus Livret A and LDDS, which saw their rate drop to 1% on February 1 and to 2% on August 1, have every chance of becoming even more profitable in 2023 and 3% from next February 1st.

For their part, taxed accounting books should also benefit from this decision by the ECB. According to the latest data available from the Banque de France, as of July 1 their average return is only 0.09% raw he is alone 0.063% net, net of the single lump sum deduction of 30% that applies to interest. But according to the latest MoneyVox statement, made in early September, bank books have seen their remuneration pass on average since then. 0.12%. Banks that set the rate for their home savings accounts as they saw fit have therefore begun to forgo the ECB rate hike that began in July. And it should therefore continue though the return to the banking books remains anecdotal compare that of Libretto A for example.

Bank books: 3 years of lower rates canceled in one month!

An impact on the future PEL rate

In fact, banks don’t have much interest in pushing their own remuneration as individuals leave more and more 500 billion euros on current accounts. Money that they can partially use for their lending business. According to INSEE, only 6.8% of households have a bank book, a product often used once their Livret A and LDDS are at the limit. It should be noted that some specialized establishments offer enhanced remuneration on their bank books with promotional offers of up to 3%.

The comparison of offers on the best bank books

Furthermore, the ECB rate hike will also have an impact on the remuneration of future housing savings plans which will be reviewed in December, explains Philippe Crevel. In fact, the calculation formula is based on the money and bond market rates that will actually increase. The rate for new ELPs, currently set at 1% from 1 August 2016, is therefore expected to almost double.

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The cold shower for real estate credit

Regarding lending, the ECB’s decision is expected to have an impact on borrowers, although banks have anticipated this in part. It will confirm the rise in mortgage rates seen in recent months. While some banks, in September, recorded rates of 2.45% in 20 years, very close to the usury threshold [le taux maximal auquel une banque peut prter, NDLR] fixed rate of 2.57% until 1 October, their room for maneuver to raise rates further is limited. Finally, for those who still grant credits. Several establishments today no longer lend because it is no longer profitableexplains Mal Bernier, spokesperson for Meilleurtaux.

In the current context, with a 10-year OAT, an indicator of the borrowing rates of the French state that strongly influences the evolution of the credit market, currently at 2.1%, mortgage rates should be around 3% according to Mal Bernier: but it is impossible with the wear rate. Result, many sales records are currently frozen pending a possible change to the wear rate calculation method on October 1st which would allow for multiple rows to pass.

Life insurance: the comparison of the best offers

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