The first half of 2022 is characterized by the island by an overall increase in economic activity, with a further net job creation positive, second Bank of France. These results are set against a background of covidfrom war in Ukraine And of inflation.
At this stage of the year, the Corsican economy, which, like the others, is facing a highly inflationary context, shows resilience. What does it mean “an overall increase in activity associated with positive net job creation “.
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This is the diagnosis established closest to the field and unveiled yesterday at a press conference by Simone Kamycki, regional director of the Banque de France. The economic results at the beginning of the year could have contributed to instilling a positive dynamic for the future. “There is a context to consider. Indeed, we started 2022 with a very different situation than we know today. We had no inflation. Consumption was quite high. There was also an environmental frenzy around a way out of the health crisis “she describes.
Over the weeks, several factors have profoundly influenced the situation locally and beyond.
In the panorama, problems are gradually settling in the supply of raw materials and basic components in connection with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, then recruitment difficulties, many risks that they had “as a consequence of the slowdown in business growth “according to the formula of the regional director.
Obstacles to growth
From now on, the tensions on the supply chain are about to be absorbed for all sectors. The shortage of manpower, on the other hand, remains a major concern of the moment. Companies, in the vortex of inflation, lack weapons and skills.
However, at the very end of the summer, no economic disruption is in sight on the island. Therefore, the business climate remains stable in the sector. “In early 2022, after a 2021 marked by an 11% increase in activity, business leaders were counting on a 4.8% increase. At the end of this first half, the situation suggests that these forecasts will be in line with reality.“Simone Kamycki comments.
The trend applies equally to the agri-food industry, the production of means of transport, the wood industry and even metallurgy and the production of building materials.
According to the Banque de France, the recovery is expected to remain solid in terms of market services, “true economic lung of Corsica”. And the numbers also go up thanks to a “particularly oriented tourist season which has had a positive impact on all sectors “, we assure you. Beyond the expectations of professionals in the sector.
“Our survey at the beginning of the year showed an increase of 11.2% in 2021. The players on the field, for their part, expect an increase of 4.2% in 2022. However, this will certainly be more favorable. “observes the regional director.
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This upward revision is heavily fueled by an early tourist season, “qwhich was accompanied by a large influx of tourists “. This benefits the hotel and restaurant industry, as well as vehicle rental, passenger and freight transport, and even companies specializing in cleaning.
6,600 loans guaranteed by the state
And we could have signed even better performances. “L’the entire industry faces the difficulty of recruiting in all trades. In the end, the growth shown is undoubtedly reduced, as the constraints on supply in the hotel and restaurant sector sometimes testify.
Furthermore, according to the Banque de France, “The observed price increases have not been fully passed on to selling prices. This shift will have repercussions on sales and liquidity which should be eroded”, let’s continue. Be that as it may, both the market sector and the industry contrast with a construction sector shaken by the period.
We were aiming for modest 2% growth in 2022. We will be a notch below, according to the head of the island’s Banque de France. In his line of sight there are, among others, “a slow order book in its public component, in particular since the beginning of 2022, the repercussions of the conflict in Ukraine” which are heavy. “Difficulties in accessing raw materials and the general increase in prices are unlikely to be transmitted to the prices“Note.
At the same time, the “The spread of credit in Corsica is greater than that known throughout France. The difference is almost double”says the manager. Overall, in September 2022, the companies of the island “cash is not lacking”, no doubt also because the loans guaranteed by the state are still in the bank accounts of the establishments.
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In these conditions, “we don’t see a particular number of business failures coming “, as well as national.
On the island, 6,600 PGE were granted, the equivalent of 1% of the total PGE for an economy that represents 0.5% of the total. And 80% against 76% nationwide await reimbursement.
A “good financial support” overcome the Covid crisis and the Russian-Ukrainian war, according to economic actors.