Rates are skyrocketing, but how far will they go in 2023?

Home loan: rates rise, but how far will they go in 2023?

All the players in the real estate sector closely follow the trend in interest rates. And for good reason, bank rates have risen steadily since early 2022. While borrowers could finance a 20-year mortgage at 1% on average last January, the 20-year market rate hit 2 today. , 15% nationwide, according to our Empruntis barometer. Is it still possible to take out a mortgage? And how far will this rate hike go? Response elements.

Debtor rates recorded on 10/20/2022.

A significant increase in real estate rates

According to the Crédit Logement Observatory, lending rates have risen and fallen from 1.04% in September 2021 to 1.88% in September 2022, all the durations put together, as Michel Mouillart, director of the Observatory in Les Echos explains:

“Since the beginning of the year, rates for all lending terms have increased by at least 80 basis points.” This increase would be caused “by the acceleration of inflation and the increase in uncertainties”.

Furthermore, the latest publication of the Observatory reports a decline in the production of real estate loans. Here is the detail:

Evolution of the production of real estate loans

Observed period

Evolution of the number of loans granted

July to September 2022 VS July to September 2021


from October 2021 to September 2022 VS from October 2020 to September 2021


However, it is still possible to take out a mortgage. A new element, which does not appear in this table and which nevertheless allows for the financing of more cases, changes the situation.

Raised on 1 October 2022 to 3.05% for loans over 20 years, the usury rate, which represents the maximum rate at which banks can lend, allows breathe new life into lenders who can accept files previously locked by this roof. Fixed quarterly by the Banque de France, the usury rate was out of step with market reality.

So, if you have a mature real estate project, don’t wait any longer and take advantage of this window of opportunity to make your project a reality!

A return to normal in 2023?

According to the governor of the Banque de France, it was the extremely low rates that were exceptional, as we have explained to you in our previous news.

“Everyone seems to have forgotten a bit, but the mortgages are more or less in order usually 2-3%. We are emerging from exceptionally favorable conditions, justified by too low inflation, and we are moving towards more normal financing conditions “, says François Villeroy de Galhau.

But how much will mortgage rates go up? Michel Mouillart declares, also in Les Echos, that the average rate for all the terms put together could reach 2.80% in June 2023 “to go down slowly 2.45% end of 2023the level at which it would stabilize in 2024 “.

Take advantage of our experience at the best price!

from 1.35% over 15 years(1)

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